Wednesday November 15, 2006

Unexplained plutonium and enriched uranium traces found in an Iranian nuclear waste facility. UN watchdog asks Tehran for an explanation

November 14, 2006, 9:29 PM (GMT+02:00)

These substances are used to make the fissile core of nuclear warheads.

Ths IAEA report prepared for next week’s board meeting in Vienna confirms DEBKAfile disclosures that Iran is moving towards a weapons capability on two tracks: enriched uranium and plutonium. The watchdog also complains that lack of Iranian cooperation in the agency’s attempts to investigate suspicious aspects of Iran’s nuclear program raises the suspicion that the Islamic Republic is in the middle of developing a military option.

Earlier, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced Iran would stage a “nuclear success celebration” in the first 10 days of Feb. 2007 to mark “the Iranian nation’s success in mastering the fuel cycle.”
 
 
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Rice denies a connection between the Israel-Palestinian issue and the Iraq war

November 15, 2006, 12:57 PM (GMT+02:00)

There is no connection between the stalemate in the Israel-Palestinian conflict and events in Iraq, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Tuesday night. She rejected the viewpoint of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who on Tuesday said progress in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians would stabilize the situation in Iraq.

Blair was testifying before the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group.

Rice also rejected proposals to promote talks with Syria and Iran. Speaking to reporters in Germany on her way to Vietnam, she noted that Syria was associating itself with extremist elements and that there were no signs that Iran was prepared to contribute to the stabilization of Iraq.

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Israeli woman killed as eight Qassams hit Sderot

November 15, 2006, 12:26 PM (GMT+02:00)

Fatima Solotzker, 57, a mother of two, was killed in in a Qassam missile attack early Wednesday morning. The Qassam that killed her landed on the same street where Defense Minister Amir Peretz and his family live. One of Peretz’s security guards, a 24-year-old, was severely wounded and lost his legs. Hamas and Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the attack. Eight Qassams have been fired since Wednesday morning.

Buildings and vehicles were damaged by two missiles that hit the town center.

Tuesday night, five Qassam missiles hit Sderot. Gaza Palestinians fired an RPG at an Israeli border patrol, stepping up attacks on IDF units guarding the border fence.

Wednesday, the High Court in Jerusalem is to hear the petition filed by the parents of Sderot children to fully fortify their schools against missile attacks. The state has responded that it is not necessary to fortify all the classrooms.

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Iran’s “nuclear success celebration” takes place in first 10 days of February – Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declares Tuesday

November 14, 2006, 7:45 PM (GMT+02:00)

He was reacting to recent statements by Israeli leaders. Monday, prime minister Ehud Olmert and opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu stated during visits to the US that Iran must not be allowed to pass the threshold of a nuclear weapons capability.

The first days of February are the “Ten-Day Dawn” period annually marking the victory of the Islamic Revolution which established the Shiite Islamic Republic in 1979. According to Ahmadinejad, the next celebration in three months will mark “the Iranian nation’s success in mastering the fuel cycle.”

The US and its allies have finally agreed to live with a nuclear Iran, with an Iran possessing nuclear fuel cycle, he said.

He was saying in a word that the Israelis and Americans are too late. While they were talking about ways of halting Iran’s nuclear program, the Islamic Republic had sailed past and was on the way to attaining all its nuclear goals, including a weapons capability.

DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources: Iran has clearly made dramatic progress in its nuclear endeavor largely thanks to help from China and North Korea, as DEBKA-Net-Weekly disclosed on Nov. 10. But the big question is: Have they overcome all the technological obstacles towards transforming their capabilities into operational weapons. Ahmadinejad conveys the impression that they have. According to our intelligence information, the answer is negative.

Despite success in operating several hundred advanced P2 centrifuges for enriching uranium, the Iranians have not so far managed to master the necessary tens of thousands for operation at the requisite speed to produce a sufficiency of weapons-grade enriched uranium. Iran has still not built and activated 60,000 centrifuges.

Ahmadinejad’s boasts Tuesday may therefore be nothing but an attempt to shout down and deter the United States and Israel by declaring that any attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities will be futile since the Islamic Republic has already attained all the technological attainments it aspires to.

DEBKAfile’s intelligence and military sources cite another possibility, which has not been mentioned by either the Americans or the Israelis: Iran may purchase some technology and nuclear devices too off the shelf, without going to the trouble of full home-production. The Iranian government has many billions of petrodollars to burn for shortening its race to the world’s nuclear club. It has at least one potential vendor, North Korea.

For the moment, no evidence of such a transaction has reached Western or Israeli intelligence, but it is not ruled out.

Tehran is evidently troubled enough by the words of Israeli leaders to lodge a protest with the UN nuclear watchdog in Vienna quoting deputy defense minister Ephraim Sneh’s words as evidence of Israeli threats to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Last week, Sneh said Israel must stop Iran developing a nuclear bomb at all costs.

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Tehran further raises tensions with Washington by reducing dollar-based transactions

November 14, 2006, 9:30 PM (GMT+02:00)

Economy minister Davoud Danes Jafari announced Tuesday: “We will carry out our foreign currency transactions with currencies other than the dollar and our use of the dollar will reach a minimum level.” Tehran acted in response to US curbs on Iranian banks.

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Tuesday November 14, 2006

Nasrallah tells his Hizballah followers in S. Lebanon: Siniora government will soon be ousted

November 14, 2006, 1:41 PM (GMT+02:00)

It will soon be replaced with a “clean government,” he said. Six pro-Syrian ministers including Hizballah quit the Lebanese government Saturday, breaking up unity coalition talks and aiming to torpedo Foud Siniora’s initiative for an international tribunal to try the men implicated in the Feb. 2005 murder of the Lebanese politician Rafiq Hariri last year, including relatives of Bashar Asad’s. The pro-Syrian camp demanded veto power in the new coalition and threatened to foment civil unrest if their demands were not met.

Nasrallah reported that until now Hizballah had spent $300 m in funds received from Iran to repair the damage caused in its war on Israel.

DEBKAfile adds: Damascus and the Iranian-backed Hizballah are set to exploit the post-election uncertainties in Washington and sow unrest in Beirut and other parts of the Middle East to raise the ante for their cooperation on Iraq.

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Self-styled Al Qaeda Lebanon threatens to destroy “the corrupt government” that takes US orders

November 14, 2006, 1:14 PM (GMT+02:00)

“We have reached Lebanon and we will work on destroying this government and all the other agents,” said the type-written statement issued by the previously unknown group from the N. Lebanese Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr el-Bared.

It came amid a political crisis in Beirut after the resignation of six pro-Syrian ministers.

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Bush: Iran must first give up uranium enrichment before being engaged by the US on quelling sectarian strife in Iraq

November 13, 2006, 9:28 PM (GMT+02:00)

This was the US president’s first post-election public statement on Iran. He spoke after his Nov. 13 White House meeting with Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert in the wake of a conference with the Iraq Study Group headed by James Baker and Lee Hamilton earlier Monday.

“If the Iranians want dialogue with us, they must verifiably suspend enrichment activities,” Bush said. Olmert warned that Iran is close to development a nuclear weapon which “Israel will not tolerate.”

The two agreed that it is up to Syria to show it is a fit partner for dialogue.

The president declined to offer his guest any commitment for US military action should Iran refuse to halt enrichment, beyond only economic isolation. He did not accept the Israeli leader’s charge that American efforts to isolate Iran in the last two years did not cause a slowdown in Iran’s banned activity but rather their acceleration. But Bush added: “I say this in the interest of world peace, that if Iran has a nuclear weapon, it will be incredibly destabilizing and obviously threatening to our strong ally. “

DEBKAfile notes that, in contrast to his former assertions, when the US president spoke of the danger of Iran’s nuclearization, he omitted to say that the US would not permit this threat to its “strong ally” develop.

Turning to Syria, the US president said: My policy is this: we expect the Syrians to be, one, out of Lebanon so that the Lebanese democracy can exist; two, not harboring extremists that create - that empower these radicals to stop the advance of democracies; three, to help this young democracy in Iraq succeed.

Olmert added: Everything the Syrians are doing is in the wrong direction - in Lebanon, in Iraq, and the sponsorship of Hamas and Khalid Mashal as the main perpetrators of terror against the state of Israel.

British premier Tony Blair is pushing hard for the US and the international community to “reach out” to Iran and Syria.

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Very recent Iranian-North Korean nuclear collusion revealed

November 13, 2006, 7:32 PM (GMT+02:00)

A disturbing piece of US intelligence was due to be laid before the US president George W. Bush’s strategy review conference with the Iraq Study Group and talks with the visiting Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert in Washington. It was bound to color the two events which both took place Monday, Nov. 13: Twelve days before North Korea’s first nuclear test on Oct.10, a secret Iranian military delegation of nuclear and missile experts was present in Pyongyang. The visitors were taken round North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor and the Punggye-ri testing site in the far north amid the preparations for the coming North Korean test.

This visit was first disclosed on Nov.10 by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 277.

To subscribe to DEBKA-Net-Weekly click HERE .

Some US officials received the impression that the Iranians were briefed on some of North Korea’s secret preparations for the test. If true, this would point to three developments in North Korean-Iranian relations:

First, China was in on the Iranian visit, but ignored it, preferring Pyongyang to carry the can as Iran’s nuclear partner rather than Beijing.

Second, China must also have known about the coming North Korean nuclear weapons test and only pretended to have been taken unawares by Pyongyang’s ten-minute advance notice.

Third, North Korea not only agreed to open its most secret nuclear installations to Iranian scrutiny, but is also willing to instruct Iranian scientists and technicians in Pyongyang or on their home ground on how to set up and execute a nuclear weapons test.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Tehran sources add: Iran’s overweening self-confidence in its ability to carry through its nuclear aspirations in the teeth of international rancor hinges heavily on its certainty of Sino-North Korean assistance.

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Al Qaeda is seeking technology for nuclear device to attack Western

November 14, 2006, 1:22 PM (GMT+02:00)

A senior British official confirmed Tuesday that the “aspiration is there” and so are attempts to gather materials and technology. Earlier this week, head of the British spy agency MI5, Eliza Manningham-Buller revealed that some 1,600 young British Muslims are being groomed as suicide bombers with links to al Qaeda in Pakistan. She

said at least 30 terrorist attacks are being plotted in Britain, which could involve chemical and nuclear devices. "Other countries also face a new terrorist threat,” she warned, from Spain to France to Canada and Germany." DEBKAfile adds: The two suicide bombers who attacked the Tel Aviv bar Mike's Place three years ago were British al Qaeda members who reached Tel Aviv through Syria and Gaza.

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Friday November 10, 2006

 

DEBKAfile Exclusive: USS Boxer Strike Group, entered the Persian Gulf Thursday, Nov. 9, the largest US landing force to reach this water in a decade

November 10, 2006, 3:21 PM (GMT+02:00)

The Boxer Expeditionary Strike Group (BOXESG) now in the US Fifth Fleet area headquartered in Bahrain, consists of Boxer (picture), Amphibious Squadron 5, the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit (Seals), the Coast Guard cutter Midgett and

Canadian frigate HMCS Ottawa, as well as the USS Dubuque, USS Comstock, the largest landing craft in the US Navy, USS Bunker Hill and the guided missile destroyers USS Benfold and USS Howard.

The Boxer Group has just come from joint maneuvers with the Indian navy in the Arabian Sea opposite the coast of Goa, including large-scale landing practices. The group’s commander, Capt. David Angood said that if “anything important happens in the real-world environment, the task force will deal with it in the most efficient manner.”

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the arrival of Boxer in the Persian Gulf coincided with the USS Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group’s passage through the Suez Canal on its way from the Gulf to the Mediterranean. It is the first time that a US naval strike force is accompanied by a coast guard unit. Its vessels are equipped and their crews trained for rapid rescue and aid missions to damaged ships and wounded crewmen. Their presence in the task force indicates that the Boxer strike group is prepared for Iranian attack by sea, air, submarine, sea-to-sea missiles or depth mines.

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U.S. NAVY GULF ENTRY
 

WASHINGTON [MENL] -- The U.S. Navy has been gathering a range of assets for introduction in the Gulf.

The navy has gathered aircraft carriers and troop transports for entry in the central Gulf. They said this included at least 10 warships that would arrive in the region over the next few days.

"There are assets being gathered in the Indian Ocean off the coast of India and Pakistan as well as assets moving toward the Gulf from the Red Sea," an official said.

Officials said the navy was ordered to begin the redeployment in the Gulf in Oct. 1. They said the first assets to sail toward the region were cruisers and minesweepers. 

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Iran has reported the formation of an army of suicide fighters. 

 Iran has reported the formation of an army of suicide fighters.
NICOSIA [MENL] -- Iran has reported the formation of an army of suicide
fighters.

Iranian officials said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has recruited
thousands of people and trained them for suicide missions. The officials
said the recruits were taught how to blow themselves up in front of oncoming
enemy main battle tanks and troop carriers as well as how to cross
minefields.

"The Revolutionary Guards does not only depend on its technological might
because it has thousands of martyrdom seekers and they are ready for
martyrdom-seeking operations on a large scale,'' IRGC commander Gen. Yahya
Safavi said.

In an interview on Iran'a Al Alam television on Nov. 5, Safavi called the
suicide troops "trained professionals." He said the troops would be used to
stop any ground invasion of Iran.

 
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Iran buying 'whole villages' of converts in Syria; Assad gives 'carte blance' 

 Iran buying 'whole villages' of converts in Syria; Assad gives 'carte
blance'
Geostrategy-Direct, www.geostrategy-direct.com, November 8, 2006
WASHINGTON - Iran is moving in on Syria to the point of encouraging Alawis
and Sunnis to convert to Shi'ite Islam.

Syrian opposition sources said the regime of President Bashar Assad has
given Iran "carte blanche" in Syria. Unlike his late father, Bashar has
allowed Iranian clerics to spread the Shi'ite religion in Syria.

"Syrians have been observing over the last year a dangerous phenomena mostly
witnessed by an alarming number of non-Shia turning to Khomeini-style Shia
in return for financial rewards," the opposition Reform Party of Syria
stated. "Whole villages and urban areas are adopting the Hizbullah model
whereby clinics, schools and social services are provided by Iran in return
for Syrians to convert to Shi'ism."

In August 2006, RPS stated, Iran opened two centers in the Syrian port of
Latakia. The centers, which teach Farsi, have been converting Sunni Muslims.

"Assad is logically calculating that if Hizbullah, with its 15,000 fighters
and a God-like following of its figurehead Sheik [Hassan] Nasrallah, can
achieve with $100 million a year the military prowess it exhibited against
Israel then why not turn all of Syria into a larger Hizbullah laboratory in
the hope of attaining the same results?" the Syrian opposition party stated.

Sunnis comprise 70 percent of Syria. About 11 percent of the country
consists of the ruling Alawite community, with the remainder Christians and
Druze.

Opposition sources said the spread of Shia in Iran has angered many Sunnis,
particularly those aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood. Sunni clerics
envision a backlash against Iran and its representatives.

"Many [Sunni clerics] have voiced the following logic: We see the next
confrontation in the Middle East along the lines of Israel vs. Iran and we
have no choice but to stand by Israel to protect our religion," RPS stated.

"This logic emanates from the fact that no Sunni Arab country has the
military competence to stand-up to the Iran-Syria-Hizbullah axis and also
because Israel, unlike Iran, is not interested in converting Sunni Muslims,"
it said.

 
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Lebanon to install thousands of surveillance cameras in Beirut's Hizbullah
neighborhoods

Geostrategy-Direct, www.geostrategy-direct.com, November 8, 2006
NICOSIA - The Lebanese government has approved a surveillance plan for
Hizbullah-dominated areas of Beirut.

The Lebanese Cabinet has agreed to install surveillance cameras throughout
Beirut in a $12-million program. The Cabinet ordered the cameras to be
attached to telephone lines and placed in Hizbullah-dominated neighborhoods
of southern Beirut.

"It agreed unanimously to use all necessary means to control the security
situation in Lebanon," Lebanese Information Minister Ghazi Aridi said.

Aridi said the cameras would monitor numerous areas throughout the Lebanese
capital in the first step towards a comprehensive security program.

But the minister stressed that the southern suburbs of Beirut would not
receive cameras until a much later stage. He said damaged neighborhoods
would first require reconstruction following the war with Israel, which
ended on Aug. 14. During the 34-day war, Israel targeted Hizbullah
headquarters and suspected weapons arsenals in southern Beirut.

Thousands of cameras would be installed throughout Beirut and linked to a
command and control center. They center would be manned by representatives
of the army and police to facilitate rapid response to emergencies.

Hizbullah ministers oppose the installation of the security cameras in
southern Beirut. They said the reconnaissance system, linked to a satellite,
could be subject to Israeli intrusion.

"Linking cameras to satellites could allow Israel to violate our security,"
said Energy Minister Mohammad Fneish, a Hizbullah member.

In the first stage, officials said, data from the sensors would be relayed
over telephone lines. Police stations throughout Beirut would be linked to
the system with a central C2 center established in the Helou police barracks
in Corniche Al Mazraa.

Interior Minister Ahmed Fatfat said Lebanon would introduce other security
measures in the greater Beirut area. Fatfat said the campaign would include
army and police reinforcements.

"This will continue until mid-January," Fatfat said.

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Saudi rulers locked in power struggle over response to Iran threat

Geostrategy-Direct, www.geostrategy-direct.com, November 8, 2006
Saudi leaders cannot decide whether Iran is more of a threat than is Israel.

Saudi King Abdullah believes that Iran represents the greatest threat to the
Gulf Arab kingdom and must be fought at any cost. The king regards Iran as
intent on taking over the Sunni oil sheikdoms in the region, with Saudi
Arabia being the biggest prize.

Abdullah sees Iran's leadership as intent on forming a Shi'ite arc that
would dominate the Middle East and destroy the Sunni world. Already, Iran
has in his view effectively taken over Iraq, Lebanon and Syria while making
serious inroads in such countries as Bahrain, Jordan and the Palestinian
Authority.

As a result, Abdullah wants to form an alliance with Israel and Jordan to
prevent a Shi'ite takeover. The king's idea is for the three countries to
cooperate against Iran both on its home court as well as in Iraq, Lebanon
and Syria. The United States could be counted upon to support such an
alliance.

The king's half-brother, Crown Prince Sultan, opposes this strategy. Sultan
has not ignored the Iranian threat, but he believes that Riyad must keep
away from Israel at any cost and prepare other options against Iran. The
crown prince is unclear about what those alternatives are.

At the bottom of the dispute rests a naked power struggle between the two
elderly royals. Abdullah has appointed a commission to decide on succession
and whether Saudi monarchs are fit to rule. This has frightened the ailing
Sultan, who badly wants to succeed Abdullah and eventually transfer power to
his eldest son.

The United States leans toward Sultan. The U.S. intelligence community has
assessed that the crown prince, who is also defense minister, would take
greater account of American interests than any other successor.

But a British Defense Ministry report provides a glimmer of insight into
Sultan's character. In a cable written in the late 1980s from then-British
Ambassador William Morris, Sultan was described as corrupt, "not highly
intelligent, inflexible and imperious, and drives a hard bargain."

King disturbed by reports of orgies in Wahabi Saudi Arabia

As a modest and pious man, Abdullah has good reason for seeking major
reforms in Saudi Arabia. The king has been hearing steady reports of a sharp
decline in morals in the country.

An immediate danger is the breakdown of the Saudi family. Young Saudis are
often forced into marriage by their elders. But once behind closed doors,
there is no pretense of any commitment.

In Jeddah, the Mawadda Social and Family Reconciliation and Counseling
Center has been processing requests for help from thousands of married
couples on the verge of breaking up. The threat is not divorce, heavily
frowned upon in the kingdom, but of the husband establishing a second home
with a concubine or prostitute.

"Our youths are not, unfortunately, educated on the importance of leading a
secure married life," said Hassan Al Shelabi, the center director. "While
the parents are keen to give their children luxury homes, rich food and
fashionable clothing they neglect to prepare the children for a healthy
married life and being good husbands or wives."

Al Shelabi said his center has received reports of wife swapping, of
husbands pressuring wives to sleep with their friends and of orgies. He said
these requests reflect the influence of Western culture, easily accessible
on satellite television or the Internet.

Not surprisingly, the disdain that young Saudi men have for marriage has led
to a huge increase in single Saudi women. The Saudi men would rather use
their spare time to play house with Western women in Europe or the United
States rather than raise a family back home.

Abdullah regards this phenomenon as part of the corruption of Saudi life
fueled by easy oil money that has wrecked traditional values of honesty and
work.

With the price of oil steadily moving to $100 a barrel, the life for Saudi
youngsters is expected to only get easier.

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In First, Hamas Calls For Strikes On U.S. Targets

GAZA CITY [MENL] -- For the first time, Hamas has called on its Muslim allies to attack U.S. targets around the world.

The Hamas call came amid an Israeli artillery attack that killed at least 19 people in the northern Gaza Strip. Most of the casualties in the strike on Beit Hanoun were said to be civilians, with at least four members of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade of the Fatah movement.

"America is offering political, financial and logistic cover for the Zionist occupation crimes, and it is responsible for the Beit Hanoun massacre," Hamas said in a statement on Wednesday after the Israeli strike. "Therefore, the people and the nation all over the globe are required to teach the American enemy tough lessons."

It was the first time Hamas called for Muslim strikes on the United States. Over the last few months, Hamas figures warned the United States that its interests in the Middle East would be endangered by support for Israel.

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AL QAIDA SEEKS TO SMUGGLE ATGMs IN SAUDI
 

ABU DHABI [MENL] -- Al Qaida was said to have been smuggling anti-tank missiles in Saudi Arabia.

Officials said the Interior Ministry determined that Al Qaida smuggling operations have increased from Iraq and Yemen. They said Al Qaida has sought to introduce anti-tank guided missiles and rocket-propelled grenades into the Arab kingdom.

Since August 2006, security forces directed by the ministry captured four anti-tank missiles and RPGs. Officials said Saudi authorities also seized large quantities of ammunitions and explosives.

A Nov. 6 report by the ministry's Border Guards' Directorate General asserted that 46 hand grenades, 900 dynamite sticks, 900 detonation wires, four anti-tank rockets and an RPG projectile were seized during the third quarter of 2006. The report also cited a detonator, high explosives, 199 weapons, 134,772 bullets of various calibers and 11 ammunition belts.

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Israel must prepare to thwart Iran’s drive for a nuclear capability “at all costs”, says Israel’s Dep. Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh

November 10, 2006, 3:25 PM (GMT+02:00)

In a Jerusalem Post interview ahead of prime minister Ehud Olmert’s White House talks next week, Sneh said he is not advocating a pre-emptive Israeli operation, but considers it a last resort. “Even a last resort is sometimes the only resort.”

Taking a different line, Olmert said Thursday night that Iran posed a serious threat that should be addressed with a cool head. “The big countries have to lead and we have to push them,” he said. But Sneh said the chances of the international community instituting effective sanctions against Iran was not high. “My working assumption is that they won't succeed."

The newly-appointed second in command at the Israeli defense ministry stressed that his priority was "preparing the IDF for victory in the next round with Iran and its proxies."

High on the list was the need to improve the country's defense systems. "We developed and produced the Arrow, the only system that can intercept nuclear missiles. Depending on the altitude when intercepted, the warheads do not detonate. But Israel needs to substantially improve its indigenous long-range capacities."

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Advance batch of 125 Indonesian troops lands in Beirut, the first Asian contingent to join the UN Lebanon peacekeeping force

November 10, 2006, 2:18 PM (GMT+02:00)

Among the group flown in from Istanbul by two US Air Force planes was 1st Lt. Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, son of the Indonesian president, who volunteered for the mission. It will be joined by another 800 men. Their leader said they will help the UNIFIL force fulfill the mandate of UN Security Council resolution 1701

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Wednesday November 8, 2006

Lebanon Faces Political Crisis in Aftermath of War: Tensions Escalate Between 'March 14 Forces' and Hizbullah, Pro-Syrian Camp
By: H. Avraham*

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Tuesday November 7, 2006

Syrian FM Walid Mualem threatens to start “countdown to war” with Israel failing progress on peace track

November 6, 2006, 11:39 PM (GMT+02:00)

DEBKAfile cites Mualem’s words at a joint news conference in Damascus with Norwegian foreign minister Jonas Gahr Steore Monday, Nov. 6, as an explicit threat of war to be launched against Israel at a time of Syria’s choosing.

The Syrian minister welcomed a debate going on in Israel about whether to resume negotiations with Damascus on the Golan Heights, which Syria lost to Israel in the Six-Day War. He went on to say: “We now have a window of opportunity of several months. If there is no progress, the countdown will begin for a new Syrian-Israeli war.”

On Nov. 3, DEBKA-Net-Weekly 276 revealed that on Oct. 30 British PM Tony Blair had sent his senior political adviser Nigel Sheinwald (picture) on a mission to Damascus, hoping to turn the coming British exit from Iraqi towns round as leverage for a comeback to the Arab world and make up for his failed Iraq policy. One of the items in the British official’s briefcase for his meeting with president Bashar Asad and Mualem was a secret message from Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert: an offer to start peace talks. It was posted through Blair. The Syrian president sent a return message to the British prime minister: Tell Olmert I’m ready to talk.

This move connected with a broader deal: Damascus would break away from its pact with Tehran in return for normal relations with the West. Israel-Syrian talks would kick off this process.

Both parties agreed that the Sheinwald mission and the business they discussed would be kept secret.

No sooner had the British emissary flown out of Damascus, when the Syrians leaked word of his visit together with the Syrian president’s rejection of Olmert’s offer to talk, barring a prior Israeli commitment to cede the Golan.

This was not what the Syrian president had told his British vistor. When Sheinwald arrived in London, he found out that Asad had been stringing him along before killing the Blair initiative stone cold.

All along the Syrian ruler had kept faith with Tehran. He had rolled out his usual line of peacespeak, which is routinely welcomed by European nations and others, to sugar-coat his scheme for a war against Israel with full Iranian military and intelligence backing.

Walid Mualem was more frank. “If Israel is thinking of launching a war next year this is not the way,” he said. He was evidently responding to the Haaretz report of Nov. 11 which quoted the IDF General Staff as expecting a Syrian-Hizballah war to be launched in the summer of 2007.

DEBKAfile’s military sources note that if this reflects their thinking, Israel’s army chiefs are over-optimistic. But many Israeli generals, including the new OC Northern Command, Maj-Gen.Gaby Eisenkott, judge from Syrian and Iranian military preparations that major hostilities could erupt a lot earlier and will try and catch Israel unready.

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Monday November 6, 2006

SPIEGEL ONLINE - November 2, 2006, 07:12 PM
URL: http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,446171,00.html

ISRAEL'S CRITICISM OF UNIFIL
"No One Will be Able to Stop Hezbollah"
By Pierre Heumann in Tel Aviv

Israel considers the German navy's peacekeeping mission off the coast of Lebanon to be futile. The Israeli military is unhappy with the principles of the UNIFIL mission -- it says they allow the arms shipments to Hezbollah to continue.

It was a rude awakening for the residents of Beirut. Low-flying Israeli jet planes flying pirouettes above the Lebanese capital. Eye witnesses report seeing eight planes, mostly above Shiite neighborhoods.

Flights above Lebanese territory have been routine for the Israeli air force for years. Israeli pilots jump into action as soon as their radar registers anything that can't immediately be accounted for. The point, explains Eitan Ben-Eliahu, former commander of the Israeli air force, is to gather information about Hezbollah's activities.

But are such flights really necessary now that the UN-mandated cease-fire is in effect? The truce, implemented in mid-August after a month of fighting in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel, is being only formally observed by Beirut, says Ben-Eliahu and that the Lebanese are allowing the Shiite militia to rearm. Terje Roed-Larsen, the United Nations special envoy to Lebanon, joins him in that assessment. The Lebanese, he says, have observed weapons being smuggled in from Syria until very recently.

How effective is the UNIFIL fleet?

So what of the German navy's mission in the eastern Mediterranean -- a mission with the explicit goal of preventing such arms smuggling? While in Israel the international UNIFIL fleet's operation has been welcomed, experts wonder about how effective it really is.

For one thing, says an Israeli diplomat, the operation off the coast of Lebanon lacks a clear mandate; he calls it a kind of hybrid between a pure observation operation and a military mission. He says the effectiveness of the counter-smuggling mission has been further reduced by the restrictions placed on the German navy's mobility.

"When a ship carrying weapons for Hezbollah leaves a Syrian port and heads south, its captain feels safe as long as he doesn't stray more than 11 kilometers from the coast," says Gad Shimron, an Israeli security expert who works for the daily Ma'ariv. The Syrian captain can head comfortably for Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, Shimron elaborates, as if he were shipping a cargo of tomatoes or olives, and the German navy isn't allowed to interfere with his journey.

Originally, the Germans had thought they would have freedom of movement off the coast of Lebanon as well as the right to board suspicious ships. But those rights were limited in the final draft of the mandate. The Germans must request the Lebanese to interfere with suspicious vessels, and they must register with Lebanese authorities if they plan to travel inside six kilometers of the coast.

Even without such restrictions, tracking arms shipments would be difficult; dozens of ships and boats travel along the Lebanese coast every day, without the UN troops being informed about their cargo. Shimron believes Hezbollah's strategists are already using the maritime security gap to stock up on weapons. "No one will be able to stop Hezbollah from doing so," he says.

Avi Primor, the former Israeli ambassador to Germany, is similarly skeptical about the German navy's peacekeeping mission. The German navy is "definitely" causing difficulties for the arms smugglers, he says -- but can it stop them? Primor answers the question diplomatically, with a dry "Well, maybe."

One Israeli officer is even more cynical of the mission. The greatest contribution the Germans have made so far was that of rescuing Syrian sailors at sea, he says.

The peacekeeping operation is politically controversial too. On the one hand, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is celebrating the deployment of the international peacekeeping force as a political victory. On the other, though, the force's presence means an internationalization of the conflict in Lebanon. Israel's violation of Lebanese air space, for example, has been criticized by France; the European Union has also called on Israel to respect Lebanon's borders.

"Tracking enemies and terrorists"

But Israel has become used to treating the air space above Lebanon as if it were its own territory, despite protests from the UN. "They can protest as much as they like. Our reconnaissance flights will continue," Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh said on the radio recently. The low-altitude flights above Lebanese territory, he says, are for "tracking enemies and terrorists."

Lebanon, not surprisingly, sees things a bit differently. Israel's intention isn't that of gathering information, Beirut complains, but rather that of intimidating the population and making a show of force. Israel, after all, disposes of sophisticated espionage technology and has its own satellites in orbit, a commentary in the Beirut-based newspaper Daily Star points out.Buzzing Beirut makes little sense neither politically nor militarily.

But it has become routine. Indeed, the recent incident which say an Israeli F-16 fly low over a German ship off the coast of Lebanon was likewise hardly out of the ordinary. Indeed, the Israeli air force didn't even feel the need to report it. Defense Minister Amir Peretz only asked for information once the press got a hold of the story.

Now, of course, the Israeli air force is in possession of new orders designed to prevent such "routine incidents" from occurring again. The plan is for the air force to improve its coordination with the German navy. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has apologized to German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the incidents -- obviously aware that the peacekeeping mission could become controversial in Germany. His call to Merkel was partially designed to ensure that her position didn't erode, government sources say.

But even if Israel doubts the political and military effectiveness of the UNIFIL, one side effect of the UN's increased presence in the region is hard to overlook: The intensified security controls along the border between Israel and Lebanon have caused major problems for what used to be a flourishing drug trade. Cannabis, illegal in Israel, is now eight times more expensive than it was before the war.

Pierre Heumann is the Middle East correspondent of the Swiss newspaper Weltwoche

 

 

Saturday November 4, 2006

Iran Test-Fires 3 New Missiles in Gulf

BY NASSER KARIMI - Associated Press
November 3, 2006
URL: http://www.nysun.com/article/42902

 AP / Mehr News Agency, Sajjad Safari

Iran's Revolutionary Guards tests missiles during maneuvers in a central desert area of Iran. Dozens of missiles were test-fired, including the long-range Shahab-3, Iranian state-run television said Thursday.

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Iran has successfully test-fired three new models of sea missiles in a show of force to assert its military capacities in the Gulf, military officials said Friday.

Television showed footage of the elite Revolutionary Guards firing the missiles from warships and from mobile launching pads on the shore.

Iranian forces have previously test-fired missiles in the crowded Gulf waters, but the new maneuvers, which began on Thursday, appeared to be Iran's response to an American-led military exercise held earlier this week in the same zone.

"The maneuvers are not a threat to any neighboring country," said Gen. Ali Fazli, the spokesman for the Iranian war games.

Iran nonetheless insisted the new sea missiles enhanced its military muscle in the Gulf, where most of the world's oil is extracted.

The weapons are "suitable for covering all the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian gulf and the sea of Oman," said Adm. Sardar Fadavi, the deputy navy chief of the Revolutionary Guard.

Some 20 percent of the world's oil supply passes every day through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

The three new types of missiles, named Noor, Kowsar, and Nasr, have a range of about 106 miles and were built for naval warfare, TV reported. Iranian sea missiles previously had a range of 75 miles, TV quoted Fadavi as saying.

The new tests demonstrate Iran's military capacities at sea, the admiral said.

State TV said the new missiles were Iranian-made and could be used in lant-to-sea or sea-to-sea warfare. It did not give more details about the weapons.

The Revolutionary Guards began the maneuvers, named "Great Prophet," on Thursday by firing dozens of long-range missiles in a desert area of central Iran.

Iran insisted the renewed saber-rattling was not intended at intimidating countries in the region. "We are in good interaction with our neighbors," said Mr. Fazli, the military spokesman.

On Thursday, however, Iran said it hoped the war games would send world powers a strong message. "We want to show our deterrent and defensive power to trans-regional enemies, and we hope they will understand the message," the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, said in a clear reference to America, Britain and France, who were among the six nations that took part in the Gulf maneuvers this week.

Iran called "adventurist" the American-led naval exercise that ended on Monday, criticizing Arab states that took part and saying Gulf nations would be safer if they organized their own security alliance _an implicit criticism of American military presence in the region.

The U.S. Fifth fleet is stationed in Bahrain, a tiny oil kingdom located across the Gulf from Iran.

Iran remains locked in dispute with the West over its nuclear program, which Washington says is geared to producing atomic weapons but Tehran says is only for generating electricity.

Asked about Thursday's maneuvers, Secretary Rice said she thought the Iranians "are trying to demonstrate that they are tough."

The Islamic Republic has already held three large-scale military exercises this year. In its April exercises, Iran tested what it called an "ultra-horizon" missile, which is fired from helicopters and jet fighters, and the Fajr-3 missile, which can reportedly evade radar and use multiple warheads to hit several targets simultaneously.

While American officials have suggested that Iran is exaggerating the capabilities of its newly developed weapons, Washington and its allies have been watching the country's progress in missile technology with concern.

The American-led maneuvers that finished Monday focused on surveillance, with warships tracking a vessel suspected of carrying nuclear components or illegal weapons. The nations that took part were Australia, Bahrain, Britain, France, Italy and America.

The U.N. Security Council is considering imposing sanctions on Iran, which has ignored demands that it cease uranium enrichment, a process that can produce the fuel for nuclear reactors or material for atomic bombs.

Russia, a veto yielding power at the Security Council, said it opposed the U.N. sanctions in their current form.

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Iran Test-Fires Missiles Capable of Reaching Israel and American Bases

BY TIM BUTCHER - The Daily Telegraph
November 3, 2006
URL: http://www.nysun.com/article/42895

JERUSALEM — Iran flexed its military muscle yesterday by test-firing missiles capable of hitting Israel and local American bases in maneuvers that the hard-line regime codenamed "Great Prophet."

In what was taken as a clear warning to America, the commander-in-chief of the elite Revolutionary Guards said the tests were intended to display his country's military strength.

"We want to show our deterrent and defensive power to transregional enemies, and we hope they will understand the message of the maneuvers," the head of the Revolutionary Guards, General Yahya Rahim Safavi, said.

Iranian state television reported the missiles, including the long-range Shahab-3, were fired from mobile launching pads in the country's central desert region at the opening of 10 days of military operations.

The exercise came just 48 hours after a U.S. Navy-led flotilla in the Gulf exercised close to Iranian territorial waters, practicing drills for intercepting ships carrying missiles components and weapons of mass destruction.

Shahab-3 missiles are believed to be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and are believed to have a range of more than 1,200 miles, meaning Israel and American military bases in the Middle East are within range.

Among the other weapons tested was the Shahab-2, which has a cluster warhead that can send 1,400 bomblets at the same time, solid-fuel Zalzal missiles, and guided missiles such as Scud-B, Zolfaghar-73, and Z-3, Iranian television said. Footage showed six missiles being fired from mobile launchers and leaving long vapor trails above the desert near the holy city of Qom. As they rose, General Safavi and other guardsman shouted: "God is the Greatest."

General Safavi said the 10 days of military exercises would comprise drills by ground, air, and naval forces, including submarines, mainly in the Gulf and Sea of Oman.

Meanwhile, the Iranian-aligned Hezbollah group in Lebanon yesterday rejected White House claims that it and Syria were seeking to topple Beirut's pro-Western government of Prime Minister Siniora as "a blatant interference ... concerning the Lebanese people's choices over their government and policies."

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Friday November 3, 2006

ASSAD TARGETS THE HOUSE OF SAUD
Excerpted from: Eurasia Security Watch No. 138,

November 2, 2006
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC

The already-chilly relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria are about to get even frostier. According to a new expose in a leading Gulf paper, the government of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus is gearing up to unleash a wave of attacks against leading Saudi figures. Syria's intelligence service, the report says, is recruiting Saudi, Algerian and Moroccan extremists who live in Syria and Jordan to target key members of the House of Saud, including Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, the Kingdom's former Ambassador to Washington and current head of the Saudi National Security Council. The Syrian campaign appears to be motivated by revenge; observers say officials in Damascus blame recent acts of violence in the Ba'athist state on Saudi and Saudi-influenced extremists. (Kuwait Al Seyassah, Newspapaer)

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Thursday November 2, 2006

Iran announces test-firing of ballistic Shehab-3 missiles in first hours of new military maneuvers

November 2, 2006, 11:02 AM (GMT+02:00)

Several kinds of short-range missiles were also launched in central desert area of Iran early Thursday, Nov. 2.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report: Iran responded Wednesday night, Nov. 1, to the US-led naval movements and buildup in the in the Red Sea (see separate item) with an announcement by its Revolutionary Guard commander General Rahim Safavi of a big, new naval exercise opening on Nov. 2. Dubbed Great Prophet, the 10-day maneuver will take place in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. The RC Air Force would, he said, for the first time test-fire the Shehab-3 (picture of first firing) armed with “a cluster warhead.”

The Shehab-3 is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and believed to have arrange of more than 2,000 km. It can reach Israel and US forces in the Middle East.

Our military experts add: This war game will demonstrate whether or not the Shehab-3 stands up to Iran’s boasts of its capabilities, including its effective deployment in large numbers. If so, it will pose a lethal strategic threat to Israel, US deployments in the Middle East and Iran’s neighbors. Israel’s Arrow anti-missile missile system, developed for defense against the Shehab, is not capable of fending off an attack by large numbers of multiple-warhead missiles.

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US aircraft carriers USS Eisenhower and USS Enterprise in the Red Sea off the Saudi Arabian coast

November 1, 2006, 8:29 AM (GMT+02:00)

The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower, and its accompanying carrier strike group, passed through the Suez Canal on Monday, Oct. 30, and arrived in the Red Sea on Tuesday, Oct. 31.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the USS Eisenhower is at sea off the Saudi Arabian coast, together with another aircraft carrier, the USS Enterprise. The presence of the two US aircraft carriers, and their accompanying strike groups, in a body of water as small as the Red Sea is an extraordinary development.

So far there have been no indications that the USS Eisenhower arrived to replace the USS Enterprise.

US Intelligence director John Negroponte also is in the region. He was in Saudi Arabia over the weekend and in Cairo on Tuesday, and is due to arrive in Israel on Wednesday, Nov. 1.

With the arrival of the USS Eisenhower in the region, there are now three US aircraft carriers in the Persion Gulf and surrounding waters, including the USS Iwo Jima. Accompanying the USS Eisenhower are the guided-missile cruiser USS Anzio, the guided-missile destroyers USS Rampage and USS Mason and the nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine USS Newport.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that a fourth US aircraft carrier, the USS Boxer, will arrive on the scene by the beginning of next week, together with its carrier strike group. The USS Boxer is currently taking part in joint US-Indian naval maneuvers, dubbed Malabar ’06, which include the landing of marines on beaches

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The Russian-made antitank missile Metis-M9 is returning to the battle field – this time to the Gaza Strip

November 1, 2006, 2:23 PM (GMT+02:00)

Exclusive to DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources: Early Wednesday morning, Nov. 1, the IDF embarked on a large operation in the Beit Hanun area in northern Gaza to halt the firing of Qassam rockets and eliminate terrorist cells. But the primary purpose is to thwart the new military option Hamas has been using against the IDF – squads that fire antitank missiles, a tactic Hizballah employed during the recent war in Lebanon.

IDF troops exchanged heavy fire with Palestinian gunmen in the northern Gaza Strip. Nine Palestinians were killed and 40 were wounded, the IDF reported.

A few hours after the operation began, IDF brass informed the security cabinet in Jerusalem about the latest developments in Gaza, including information about Hamas’s plans for an impending offensive against Israel, which is being coordinated with the help of military advisers from Iran and Syria, some of whom are already in the Gaza Strip working to carry out the plan.

According to Hamas’s military plan, parts of which DEBKAfile’s military sources are exclusively reporting, Hamas has come to the conclusion that firing rockets, particularly Qassams, at Israeli towns and villages is no longer effective and should be stopped. Instead of firing rockets, Hamas intends to open a barrage of around-the-clock heavy fire on Israel, using antitank missiles, short-range ground-to-ground missiles and artillery fire – similar to what Hizballah used during the Lebanon war – and mortar fire.

The massive barrage of fire, Hamas believes, will prevent Israel from embarking on any military or civilian activity in a 2-km to 4-km buffer zone from the Gaza security fence. The intention is to transform all IDF bases and outposts, and all settlements in the Negev, into ghost towns, since any movement between them would entail heavy losses

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Tuesday, October 31, 2006

DEBKAfile Exclusive: Israel Air Force warplanes over-fly Hizballah’s reconstructed command centers and fortifications in S. Beirut Tuesday

October 31, 2006, 1:22 PM (GMT+02:00)

According to DEBKAfile’s military sources, the low Israeli air passes, about which the Lebanese government complained, recorded Hizballah’s reestablishment in Beirut’s Shiite Dahya district, two months after its military centers were flattened in the Lebanon war. It is now a closed military zone whose entry is closely guarded by Hizballah operatives.

Israeli warplanes also recorded Hizballah’s revived bunker system, foundations for new rocket launchers and rebuilt intelligence and surveillance positions rising day by day along the Lebanese-Israeli border.

Similarly, the tempo of Iranian-Syrian weapons consignments to Hizballah units has been stepped up. They include ground-to-ground missiles, anti-air, anti-tank and shore-to-sea missiles. DEBKAfile’s military sources confirm that Hizballah has fully re-stocked the arsenal of rockets of the type which blasted northern Israel for 33 days in July and August.

A senior Israeli military source pointed out to DEBKAfile that intelligence-gathering on Hizballah’s recovery, rearming and regrouping for battle is of little use when it is not followed up by action. He disclosed that each time the disturbing data is put before the chief of staff and his superiors in Jerusalem, no one there decides on a response. Syria and Hizballah are exploiting this inertia to openly refortify and rearm their former positions on the border and southern Beirut, while their arms convoys ply Lebanon’s highways in broad daylight.

Neither the Lebanese army nor UNIFIL’s European contingents deployed in S. Lebanon and at sea make any move to stall the illegal influx of war materiel.

An Israeli intelligence source commented that the arms embargo contained in UN resolution 1701 is a one-way exercise. It keeps the Lebanese army and anti-Syrian militias from procuring weapons but does nothing to halt supplies to Hizballah and other pro-Syrian groups, which Israeli intelligence officers see as having two goals:

1. The takeover of Beirut’s government centers in Beirut by Iran-backed Hizballah and pro-Syrian factions – if possible without bloodshed. The weapons will be used to quell possible political or armed resistance. None of these groups, joined by Gen. Michel Aoun’s pro-Syrian Maronie Christians will have no qualms about sparking a civil war or murdering prime minister Fouad Siniora and other ministers in order to achieve their aims. This information has been in American, French, German and Israeli intelligence since the start of October, prompting US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice to say Monday, Oct. 30: “We too have heard that there are people who would like to destabilize the government of Prime Minister Siniora. We’ve heard that there are people who would like to intimidate or assassinate again, they’ve done it before in Lebanon.”

2. In the case of an armed clash, however limited in scope, between the US and Iranian forces massed in the Persian Gulf or in Iraq – which Israel’s high command believes unavoidable – informed Israeli sources have no doubt Hizballah will hit back on Tehran’s behalf with a fresh rocket offensive against Israeli cities. Intelligence-gathering is important, say those sources, but action to head off a fresh war offensive against Israel is vital. Buzzing Beirut will solve nothing.

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CIA chief meets Saudi king after Gulf terror alertPublished: Sunday, 29 October, 2006, 12:42 PM Doha Time
 
JEDDAH: CIA director Michael Hayden yesterday personally delivered a message from US President George W Bush to Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, the official SPA news agency said.

Although it did not elaborate on what was discussed, Hayden’s visit came a day after Western naval forces in the Gulf were reportedly on heightened alert for possible sea-borne attacks against the world’s largest oil-producing country.

Hayden met the king, Saudi intelligence head Prince Miqren bin Abdulaziz and senior advisers to the monarch at the Red Sea Port of Jeddah, the agency said.

Oil installations in Saudi Arabia are a "high-probability potential target" for terrorist attack, but tight security measures are in place to protect them, interior ministry spokesman General Mansur al-Turki said on Friday.

"Coalition forces are taking prudent, precautionary measures and focusing maritime security operations in the Gulf on these possible threats," a Bahrain-based spokesman for the coalition naval forces said.

Lieutenant Commander Charlie Brown said the measures were "in response to recent threats to oil infrastructure in the Gulf, including public statements by Al Qaeda leadership".

In Washington, a senior state department official speaking on condition of anonymity confirmed the existence of a threat, but added: "I can’t tell you the level of specificity or anything else."

On Thursday, Saudi security forces arrested two suspects at Sajir, 300km west of the capital, the London-based Saudi daily Al-Hayat reported yesterday, citing an interior ministry spokesman in Riyadh.

One of those held had just finished his studies at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals at Dhahran on the coast of the Gulf in the oil-rich eastern province.

His elder brother was also held because "he is suspected of belonging to the deviant minority" – the official Saudi term for Al Qaeda militants who launched a wave of attacks in the kingdom three and a half years ago – Al-Hayat quoted security sources as saying. – AFP
 
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US-Led Military Thrust Focuses Heavily on Broad Naval Deployment

DEBKAfile Exclusive Military Report

October 30, 2006, 11:53 AM (GMT+02:00)

Hundreds of US and allied war ships foregathered in the strategic seas of the Middle East and India in the last days of October 2006 for two primary missions: To prepare for a US-led military strike against Iran which has stepped up its uranium enrichment program with a second centrifuge project - undeterred by the prospect of UN sanctions; and measures to fend off palpable al Qaeda threats to oil targets.

DEBKAfile’s military sources provide details of the massive deployments:

1. A large-scale US-Indian sea exercise called Malabar 06 is in progress off the Indian coast of Goa, ending Nov. 5. The American vessels taking part are the USS Boxer carrier, the USS Bunker Hill guided missile battle cruiser, the guided missile destroyer USS Howard and the USS Benfold , as well as the Los Angeles-class nuclear attack submarine Providence and the Canadian guided missile frigate HMCS Ottawa .

Indian maritime might is displayed with its warships like INS Beas , INS Mysore , INS Shakti , INS Ganga , tanking ship INS Gharial , submarine INS Shankush and Coast Guard ship CGS Samar

Malabar also involves the landing of large number of soldiers ashore, ahead of the Indian acquisition of the massive amphibious USS Trenton transport dock which can carry six helicopters and about a 1000 soldiers.

Our Tehran sources report that last Thursday, Oct. 26, Iranian officials were seriously rattled by a rumor that an Iranian spy plane had located the USS Boxer heading for the Persian Gulf. It prompted fears of an imminent American military assault to lift Republican prospects in the coming US midterm elections of Nov. 7. In any case, the Iranians suspect that at the end of the joint US-Indian exercise in the Arabian Sea, Boxer will veer west and head into the Persian Gulf. There would then be four US air carriers with task forces parked opposite Iranian shores, including the USS Enterprise Strike Group, the USS Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group and the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, which are already in place.

According to the intelligence reaching Iran, the Boxer and its escorts carry 850 Marines who have just spent months in special training for operations on offshore oil rigs and platforms.

2. American, Italy, France, Britain, Australia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are taking part in an exercise practicing the interception of ships carrying nuclear materials or components for use in advanced weapons. The exercise opposite Bahrain is the first to be held in the Persian Gulf under the three-year old proliferation security initiative. It applications could be translated equally into the enforcement of sanctions against North Korea, which conducted its first nuclear test on Oct. 9, or Iran.

On Oct. 27, Robert Joseph, the US undersecretary of state for arms control remarked: “From Iranian news reports we know the exercise got the attention of Iran.” But rather than climbing down, Tehran referred two days later to the war games as “adventurous” and placed its armed forces on a high alert which encompassed the joint naval units of the military and Revolutionary Guards in the Persian Gulf, while the Revolutionary Guards, the Iranian army, navy and air force were placed on “yellow” alert, one level short of full war.

Also Oct. 29, , supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei replaced Iran’s air force chief, Karim Qavami with Brig Gen Capt Ahmad Miqani, on the recommendation of the Revolutionary Guards commander.

DEBKAfile’s Iran sources report that Khamenei did not approve of Qavami’s admiration for America’s military capabilities – especially the US air force’s advanced aircraft and equipment. Qavami was wont to speak out at general staff meetings in favor of procuring a new air fleet the better to stand up to a possible US attack. His successor follows the supreme ruler unquestioningly and has complete faith in the ability

3. Saudi Arabia did not join the multinational Bahrain exercise, but instead mustered its entire navy and all its special forces for deployment in dense defensive array around the biggest oil terminal in the world, at Ras Tanura. Riyadh acted in response to tangible intelligence that al Qaeda is preparing to attack its oil installations.

Warnings have intensified in recent days of impending al Qaeda attacks on the oil fields, oil ports, oil tankers and oil fields of Saudi Arabia and the Arabian oil emirates. One threat specifically targets the Bahraini offices and staff of the Benin Republic’s Societe Togolaise de Gaz and Societe Bengaz S.A.

It is not clear exactly why al Qaeda is targeting this African-owned oil company in particular. In addition, the US embassy in Riyadh has warned Americans operating in the Gulf region to stay clear of all oil installations, especially in Saudi Arabia. Another pointed alert covers Western residential compounds in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, specifying American expatriates as al Qaeda targets. Saudi security forces are standing guard at these compounds which were fatally attacked in November exactly three years ago.

4. The fourth major naval concentration is deployed in the Red Sea along Saudi Arabia’s west coast. The oil kingdom has placed its military and fleet at their highest level of preparedness for Al Qaeda-instigated terrorist attacks along this coast, particularly at the ports of Jeddah and Yanbu.

DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report: That the Saudis have by and large switched their defenses against al Qaeda to coastal targets indicates the receipt of intelligence input of a new local sea base established by al Qaeda, which enables the jihadist group to stretch its capabilities for assaulting oil and Western shore targets from the sea. This base might be located on the shore of a Gulf nation, somewhere in the Arabian Sea or in the Horn of Africa.

 

Friday October 27, 2006

Israel, Syria heighten alert for possible war
Military presence boosted as Assad warns of looming conflict over Golan

By Aaron Klein
GOLAN HEIGHTS - Israel has visibly beefed up its military presence here in the Golan Heights while neighboring Syria reportedly has placed its army on high alert and has warned it is preparing for a possible war with the Jewish state.

The Israeli Defense Forces Wednesday carried out the second in a series of scheduled military exercises in the Golan.

IDF chief of staff Dan Halutz earlier this week made a surprise visit to the mountainous territory, which the army here said was intended to