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Wednesday November 15, 2006

Special Report                        

According to sources and contacts as well as statements made in Lebanon over the past few weeks  all analysis indicates that Hezbollah is on the verge of an all out offensive in Lebanon to crumble the "March 14" Seniora Government and to seize strategic control in the country.

Following are few points deserving attention (a more comprehensive analysis will follow later):

1. As predicted since July 12, (and posted on the Counterterrorism Blog), the aim of Hezbollah's summer war with Israel, was to provoke a "strike-back" at the Lebanese Government and reshape the balance of power in Lebanon to the advantage of the Teheran-Damascus axis. Nasrallah and his allies across the sectarian divide aimed at shifting the issue of disarming Hezbollah and militias (according to UNSCR 1559) to crumbling the government, which is supposed to implement this disarming process.

2. By mid-October, Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian allies had begun a political counter offensive aiming at "enlarging" the Seniora cabinet, as a way to paralyzing it further from the inside. The political discussions took longer than anticipated by Hezbollah. Hence, a decision was made in Tehran (and subsequently in Damascus ) to move forward.

3. The perceived results of the midterm elections in the U.S. were read as positive by Tehran and its allies, in the sense that it froze vigorous reactions by the U.S. against any Iranian-Syrian move in Lebanon via Hezbollah. The feelings in Tehran and Damascus, have been that if in the next weeks and months a "thrust" takes place in Lebanon to the advantage of the pro-Syrian camp, Washington will be in no position to react or counter. Ahmedinijad and Assad believe (or have been advised to believe) that "lobbies" are moving in Washington and Brussels to restrain any strong deterrence by the U.S. against the "axis." The theory is that the Bush Administration is too busy "negotiating" with the new leadership in Congress to "dare" a mass move in the Middle East. The analysis also predicts that strong lobbies within the Democratic Party are now positioned to block any serious response to a change in geopolitics in Lebanon. It is believed that the window of opportunity won't be too long before the Administration and the upcoming Congress "understands" the Tehran-Damascus maneuver and create a unified response. Thus, the expectation is that Hezbollah and its allies were told to achieve their goals before the end of the year, and before the new Congress begin business on the Hill.

4. Hezbollah has mobilized its forces from all over the country to position them in the capital and eventually use them in moves in Beirut, the central and southern part of Mount Lebanon, where most government institutions are located. Nasrallah can also bring into "battle" the supporters of General Michel Aoun, the Syrian National-Socialists, the Baathists, and the pro-Syrian Sunni militias, the Islamic Fundamentalists paid by Syria, the Palestinian radicals and the security agencies still under the influence of Syria. This "huge" army can – technically – defeat the thin internal security forces of the government. The Lebanese Army is an unknown factor, with Hezbollah supporters in control of the military regions in the south, the Bekaa, southern suburbs and other positions. In short, the "axis army" is ready to engage in battle in Lebanon. The issue is when, how, and with what outcome.

"I am in the Guiness book as I have the whole Lebanese People as hostage now."!

5. The projected scenario is as follows: Hezbollah and Amal movement ministers will resign from the Government calling for the resignation of the Government. The next move is to have Hezbollah, Amal, and their allies in the Parliament also resign, thus creating "conditions" for what they will coin as new elections and a collapse of the cabinet. Most of these moves have already been accomplished or are on the eve of being implemented. The pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud will declare the Government and the Parliament as "illegitimate," and call for early legislative elections. The latter, if they take place will be under the smashing influence of Hezbollah's weapons (a show of force was performed in the summer) and of the cohorts of militias and security agencies. Result: a pro-Syrian-Iranian majority in parliament, followed by the formation of an "axis" government in Lebanon. The rest is easy to predict: A terrorism victory.

The question today is, how to stop this from happening? While it is very late in the process, the United States must respond in a strong bipartisan way, the Security Council should move immediately to chapter 7, and the Cedars Revolution to take the streets again. Short of these developments, the worse is to be feared on the eastern shores of the Mediterranean soon.

Dr. Phares is a visiting fellow with the European Foundation for Democracy in Brussels and a senior fellow with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington, D.C. His most recent book is Future Jihad, and he was the author of the memo that introduced UNSCR 1559 in 2004.

Tuesday November 14, 2006

Latest News

• Hezbollah Chief Says Lebanon Government "Will Go"

• Nasrallah Boycotts , 'Clean Government' to be Restored
• U.S. to Syria: Respect Beirut's Decision on Hariri Court
• Israeli Foreign Ministry Criticizes Overflights
• Israeli Army Resumes Guerrilla Training After War
• Qaida Threatens to Topple Saniora's Gov in Statement
• Iran Rejects Hariri's Accusations Over Int Tribunal
• Government Approves Hariri Tribunal Despite Resignation
• Alliot-Marie: French Protest Stopped Mock Air Attacks

• Cabinet shrugs off crisis, approves draft on Hariri tribunal
• Sfeir reprimands Christian politicians
• Iran denies trying to block formation of court
• Hizbullah: 'There will be demonstrations'
• Israelis stop buzzing French troops in South
• Non-profit group offers free de-mining machine
• Shiite council calls failure of consultations 'national loss'
• Does the UN need Lebanon's consent for Hariri court?

• Blair - we must work with 'Axis of Evil' states
• Ahmadinejad: Israel’s destruction near

- These full articles in our [ News ] section

• Lebanon's Factions Edge Toward Renewed Hostilities
• Does the UN need Lebanon's consent for Hariri court?

Latest Intelligence

• Nasrallah: Siniora government will soon be ousted
• Self-styled Al Qaeda Lebanon threatens to destroy Gov
• Bush: Iran must first give up uranium enrichment
• Very recent Iranian-North Korean nuclear collusion revealed
• Al Qaeda is seeking technology for nuclear device 

- These full articles in our [ INTEL ] section

Latest Briefs from Whitehouse / State / UN

• President Bush Prime Minister Olmert to the White House
• Whitehouse Press Briefing by Tony Snow
• State Department Daily Press Briefing
• UN Daily Press Briefing

- These full articles in our [ US GOVT Docs ] section

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Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora spoke during an interview with Reuters in his office at the Grand Sray in Beirut November 14, 2006. REUTERS/Jamal Saidi (LEBANON)

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Monday November 13, 2006

Walid Phares on Robert Rabil's new book  

Syria, the United States, And the War on Terror in the Middle East

Praeger Security International General Interest, March 2006. From the publishers introduction of Dr Robert Rabil's book

 

 

Recent events have put the spotlight on Syria's policies and actions. After the assassination of a Lebanese politician, protests in Lebanon led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops. While the withdrawal averted an immediate threat of bloodshed, the Bush administration accused Syria of being a source of instability in the Middle East, with Secretary of State Rice charging that Syria was still active in Lebanon and was supporting foreign terrorists fueling the insurgency in Iraq. The U.S.-Syrian relationship is of critical importance to the United States' efforts to promote democracy throughout the Middle East. At the same time, the United States has been pressuring Syria to clamp down on terrorism within its own borders. Rabil provides a history of the modern U.S.-Syrian relationship, putting the latest events in the context of this contemporary history, and placing the relationship in the context of Middle Eastern politics.

 

Professor Walid Phares wrote the following introduction

 

This full analysis [ HERE ] 

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Monday November 13, 2006

March 14 points finger at Tehran, Damascus
Hariri says resignation of 5 shiite ministers 'was not a coincidence'

 BEIRUT: The March 14 Forces accused Damascus and Tehran on Sunday of planning to topple the legitimate authorities in Lebanon and re-establish Syrian hegemony over the country.

In response to the resignations of the five Shiite ministers from Premier Fouad Siniora's government, the coalition met late Sunday at the Qoreitem home of the parliamentary majority leader, MP Saad Hariri, to form a unified stance. Afterward, Hariri read out a statement in which he accused Syria and Iran of being behind the resignations and plotting to foil the international tribunal to try those accused of killing his father, former Premier Rafik Hariri...more [ News ] section

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MP Wael Abu-Fa'ur in political symposium in Bisor - Aley

MP Wael Abu-Fa'ur in political symposium in Bisor - Aley : one does not fear, and would not restore the Syrian regime which planted nails in this country, the International Tribunal for immunity only to protect Lebanon from the Syrian regime, any move against the Lebanese government we will move to the Baabda Palace, exit from the government means protecting al-Assad and his regime from the International Tribunal, Let them go to the dialogue and to the government of National Unity We Await them.

Latest News

• March 14 points finger at Tehran, Damascus
• Sfeir accuses opposition of rejecting international support
• Lebanon's crisis deepens as another minister quits 
• As Hezbollah seeks power, Lebanon is feeling edgy
• Lebanon crisis reignites wider 'cold war'
• Lebanon in tug of war between US, Syria and Iran
• Anti-Syrian majority accuses Syria, Iran of obstructing tribunal 
• Syria still meddling in Lebanon affairs, says opposition group 
• Hariri tribunal behind Shiite ministers' resignation
• Hezbollah to stage protests after unity talks fail - update
• Lahoud says Lebanon cabinet 'lost legitimacy'
• Cabinet to Convene Monday despite Resignation of Ministers
• Environment Minister Becomes 6th Cabinet Member to Quit 
• March 14 Accuses Syria, Iran of Plotting to Block Hariri Court 
• Lahoud: Saniora's Government Lost Legitimacy 
• Two French Peacekeepers Injured in Bulldozer Accident
• Crippled Cabinet will still discuss Hariri court
• Israeli general in charge of troops at border resigns
• National humiliation
• Sayyed's lawyers accuse UN team of falsifying evidence in probe
• UN envoy delivers 'final draft' on court to try Hariri assassins
• Israel and America 'explore alternatives to overflights'
• March 14, Hizbullah strike unyielding poses 
• Finns accept Israeli explanation 
• UN seeks end to 'very dangerous' overflights

- These full articles in our [ News ] section

Latest Commentary / Analysis

• Elias Bejjani: Gen Michel Aoun: Fading Halos & Falling Masks
• Blair will urge US to talk to Syria and Iran
• Lebanese Cabinet Thrown Into Crisis By Hezbollah Exit
• Lebanon: Ongoing show of sad politics 
• Michael Hirst: Lebanon in crisis Hizbollah demands more power
• Clancy Chassay: Lebanon crisis as Hezbollah quits government 
• Political shifts in Lebanon: Nasrallah, the street and Iran
• Farid Ghadry: Israelis deserve better

- These full articles in our [ Com/Anal ] section

 

'Al-Qaeda Lebanon' group says it will will destroy the government
By DPA
Nov 12, 2006, 19:00 GMT

 

Beirut - A group identifying itself as 'Al-Qaeda Lebanon' issued a statement Sunday threatening 'to destroy the corrupt cabinet that takes orders from the US administration.'

The typewritten statement by the previously unknown group was sent to the Christian Voice of Lebanon radio station

'We have reached Lebanon and we will work on destroying this government and all the other agents. Let them know that we are after them, with God's will,' the statement said.

The statement came with the country in political crisis following the resignation of the five Shiite ministers.

All belong to the pro-Syrian Amal and Shiite Hezbollah groups. The government is headed Fouad Seniora, a member of the anti-Syrian majority in the country.

© 2006 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur

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Very recent Iranian-North Korean nuclear collusion revealed

November 13, 2006,

A disturbing piece of US intelligence was due to be laid before the US president George W. Bush’s strategy review conference with the Iraq Study Group and talks with the visiting Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert in Washington. It is bound to color the two events which both take place Monday, Nov. 13. Twelve days before North Korea’s first nuclear test on Oct.10, a secret Iranian military delegation of nuclear and missile experts was present in Pyongyang. The visitors were taken round North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor and the Punggye-ri testing site in the far north amid the preparations for the coming North Korean test.

This visit was first disclosed on Nov.10 by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 277.

 

Some US officials received the impression that the Iranians were briefed on some of North Korea’s secret preparations for the test. If true, this would point to three developments in North Korean-Iranian relations:

 

First, China was in on the Iranian visit, but ignored it, preferring Pyongyang to carry the can as Iran’s nuclear partner rather than Beijing.

 

Second, China must also have known about the coming North Korean nuclear weapons test and only pretended to have been taken unawares by Pyongyang’s ten-minute advance notice.

 

Third, North Korea not only agreed to open its most secret nuclear installations to Iranian scrutiny, but is also willing to instruct Iranian scientists and technicians in Pyongyang or on their home ground on how to set up and execute a nuclear weapons test.

 

By Maroun Khoury and Maher Zeineddine
Daily Star correspondent
Monday, November 13, 2006

BEIRUT: The head of the Maronite Church said Sunday that certain parties "are rejecting" the international community's support for Lebanon. In his Sunday sermon, Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir indirectly criticized the resignations of five Shiite ministers on Saturday, saying some Lebanese were acting like "they want to reject international help."

"Civil society is afflicted by disorder, which we fear will expand," Sfeir said. "We fear that those who are seeking to help us will know that we cannot manage our own affairs and we are in constant need of someone to control us."

These full articles in our [ News ] section 

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Latest News

- Hezbollah’s missiles back in Lebanon, The Sunday Times
- Hezbollah to Stage Protests After Unity Talks Fail
- Hezbollah: Quitting cabinet a warning to ruling majority
- Hezbollah Ministers Quit Lebanese Government
- Lebanon thrown into crisis as Shiites vacate cabinet
- Lebanon PM rejects Hezbollah resignations
- Lebanese Prime Minister Rejects Resignation of Ministers
- U.N. Delivers Plan for Court in Hariri Case to Lebanon

- Lebanon Sinks Deeper into Political and Sectarian Turmoil
- Sallukh Scraps Plan to Attend Cairo Meeting
- Rice: Syrian Territory Used for Accel Arming of Hizbullah
- Olmert 'Many Mistakes' 'Israel Stopped Hizbullah Threats'
- Shiite Schools Teach 'Resistance' to Children
- War's Deadly Legacy Continues to Kill
- U.N. Draft on Tribunal to Hold 'Superintendent' Responsible 
- Pellegrini Calls on Israel to End Mock Raids
- Leaders Fail to Reach Agreement, No Date Set

These full articles in our [ News ] section

Latest Commentary / Analysis

- Regional Impact of the July 2006 War on Lebanon
- Prospect of renewed chaos looms over Lebanon
- Olmert Interview, Newsweek
- A CONVERSATION WITH EHUD OLMERT, WashPost
- Olmert: Ahmadinejad must be stopped
- Islamists infiltrate four universities
- Fluid Mideast, What Now for the U.S.? Baker/Ham/Gates?
- Judge: Arrest Ex-President Of Iran
- Diplomats Say Russia Is Trying To Delay Decision Tribunal
- Lebanon needs the International Tribunal

These full articles in our [ Com/Anal ] section

Latest Special Report

- Iran offers to arm enemies of Israel with rocket arsenal
- Israel expects war as Hezbollah rebuilds missile arsenal
- White House calls Iran, Hezb a 'global nexus of terrorism'
- Rice: Syria a dangerous state, behaving in a dangerous way
- Iran TV broadcasts 'US ship spy plane footage'
- (Hamas) Terror groups call for attacks against US interests

These full articles in our [ Special Reports ] section

Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora(2ndL) speaks with anti-Syrian Lebanese leaders Saad Hariri(2ndR), Walid Jumbaltt(R) and Samir Geagea(L) during Lebanese leaders meeting in Beirut. A UN probe into the assassination of former premier Rafiq Hariri lies at the heart of the resignations of five Shiite ministers from the Lebanese government.(AFP/HO/Hassan Ibrahim)

Lebanese anti-Syrian leader Samir Geagea(L) speaks to journalists at the end of Lebanese leaders meeting in Beirut. A UN probe into the assassination of former premier Rafiq Hariri lies at the heart of the resignations of five Shiite ministers from the Lebanese government.(AFP/HO/Haitham Mussawi)

Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora(C-standing) speaks with Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri(2ndL) during Lebanese leaders meeting in Beirut. A UN probe into the assassination of former premier Rafiq Hariri lies at the heart of the resignations of five Shiite ministers from the Lebanese government.(AFP/HO/Hassan Ibrahim)

Surrounded by the media, Lebanese lawmaker Saad Hariri, son of slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, seen in pictures, lays a copy of the draft document setting up an international tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of his father, at his grave in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, Saturday, Nov. 11, 2006, following the political leaders' meeting. Rival Lebanese politicians failed to reach agreement Saturday on a Hezbollah demand to form a national unity government, raising fears of a showdown in the streets only two days ahead of an ultimatum set by the militant group to reach a deal or face massive protests that could bring down the government. (AP Photo/Ali Sultan)

Armed Militias in Lebanon also include Fatah: Militia from the Palestinian guerrilla Fatah faction march during a rally to mark the second anniversary of Arafat's death at the Ein-el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp, near the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Sunday, Nov. 12, 2006. Arafat died in a French hospital on Nov. 11, 2004, after a two-week illness. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has told an Israeli newspaper that the United States believes Syria is a dangerous state whose territory is being used for the accelerated arming of Lebanon's Hezbollah militia.(AFP/Getty Images/Chip Somodevilla)

Young Lebanese students - in Hezbollah Neighborhoods - listen to a teacher giving them a computer lesson at al-Mujtaba school in Beirut's southern suburb. As early as the age of four, students across the suburbs are taught about the "heroic resistance" of the militant group Hezbollah against Israel's summer war which left large parts of the area in complete devastation.(AFP/Marwan Naamani)

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Saturday November 11, 2006

Breaking News

Siniora’s Lebanese government breaks up, faces street disturbances after national unity talks collapse Saturday

November 11, 2006, 10:39 PM (GMT+02:00)

Five pro-Syrian Hizballah and Amal ministers walked out of Fouad Siniora’s government coalition Saturday, Nov. 11. Another two ministers, supporters of the pro-Syrian president Emil Lahoud, are on their way out, taking with them the government’s parliamentary majority. The two Shiite factions and the pro-Syrian Maronite leader Michel Aoun say their followers will take to the streets as of Sunday for demonstrations in Beirut and other Lebanese towns. It would only take a few shots, says Middle East sources, to spark clashes between Syria’s adherents and opponents in Lebanon.

The crisis erupted when Siniora proposed convening the cabinet Monday, Nov. 13, to approve a bill for a special court to try suspects in the Feb. 2005 Hariri assassination. He intended to propose a panel of 5 Lebanese and 3 international judges to be appointed by the UN Secretary General.

But the plan was generally expected in Beirut to run foul of Syrian President Bashar Asad’s resistance to seeing his close relatives in the dock. In line are his young brother Gen. Maher Asad, his brother-in-law and chief of military intelligence Gen. Asaf Shawqat and other high officers. Syria instructed its supporters in Lebanon to topple the government if necessary to block legislation for this tribunal.

The failure of the unity talks in Lebanon is seen as the first sign of fallout in the Middle East after the Bush administration’s election defeat this week over its unpopular Iraqi policy. Iran, Syria and the radical Hamas leaders in Damascus are moving fast to take advantage of the Bush administration’s policy setback to sow unrest in Beirut and instability in the Middle East to raise the ante for their cooperation on Iraq. Next, they are expected to stall Western efforts to bring the warring Palestinian factions into a unity government.

Hizbullah, Amal Cabinet Ministers Resign as Talks Collapse

Five Shiite ministers resigned from Premier Fouad Saniora's government Saturday, citing the collapsed negotiations to give Hizbullah and its allies more power in the Lebanese cabinet.

The resignation of the pro-Syrian Hizbullah and Amal ministers came after the country's top rival leaders failed to reach agreement on the formation of a national unity government.

"We have resigned because the majority insists on exercising power on its own," the head of Hizbullah's parliamentary bloc Mohammed Raad said, referring to the anti-Syrian majority that has baulked at forming a unity government without first having guarantees that pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud will step down.

"We don't want ministers who blindly follow the majority," Raad said. "This is about giving a warning to the majority."

In this photo released by the Lebanese Parliament Office, Lebanese political leaders sit around a table ahead of their meeting at the Parliament House, in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, Saturday, Nov. 11, 2006. Rival Lebanese politicians failed to reach agreement Saturday when they returned to the negotiating table Saturday, a day after the government received a draft document setting up an international tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. (AP Photo/Parliament Office, Hassan Ibrahim)

 
Lebanese Christian Maronite leader Samir Geagea speaks to reporters after a rival political leaders' meeting at parliament in Beirut November 11, 2006. Talks to defuse Lebanon's simmering political crisis collapsed on Saturday after anti-Syrian leaders rejected demands from Hezbollah and its allies for a decisive say in government. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir (LEBANON)

Today's Quote

1218 GMT -- ISRAEL -- Israel's deputy defence minister: "I am not advocating an Israeli pre-emptive military action against Iran and I am aware of its possible repercussions," Ephraim Sneh, a former general, said. "I consider it a last resort. But even the last resort is sometimes the only resort."

Latest News

Second Cedars Revolution In the Works.

A clip from the past - This Video - Walid Jumblatt Feb. 19, 2005 Calling for the Masses in the 1st Cedars Rev

March 14 Movment NOT BACKING DOWN - NO MORE GOING BACK TO APPEASING IRAN/SYRIAN WISHES - Working for the Lebanese Cause.

March 14th movement will not give in to serving Syrian or Iranian demands prior to a fair trial for the 5 time Prime Minister of Lebanon the assassinated and late, Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.

Although Hezbollah and Aoun are trying to sway the March 14th movement, the March 14th movement stands strong.

Please see the Video and remember - March 14 doesn't forget what the past brought us - we look forward to the Free, democratic and independant Lebanon.

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The Baker-Hamilton Bipartisan Iraq Study Panel reports to President Bush Monday

November 11, 2006, 2:50 PM (GMT+02:00)

Their White House conference signals the post-election review of US strategy in Iraq and the rest of the Middle East. It will be broadly attended by the top Bush policy-makers. Among them, according to White House spokesman Tony Snow, Vice President Dick Cheney, national security adviser Stephen Hadley, secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, resigned defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte and CIA Director Gen. Mike Hayden, as well as U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Peter Pace. Incoming defense secretary Robert Gates will attend as a member of the bipartisan committee. His seat will pass to Lawrence Eagleburger, secretary of state under the first President Bush.

General Pace said earlier that the change in Pentagon leadership itself would not have a direct impact on the next moves in Iraq. “We continuously review what’s going right, what’s going wrong and what needs to change.”

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Exclusive Video of United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice with LBC's May Chidiac - Firm Support for Lebanon.